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—Cliff
Cincinnati, Monday
by Cliff Schecter
Welcome to the Blue Letter! Here’s 5 stories I’m watching worth your attention today
Plus a few headlines to keep an eye on this week. Let me know what you think by responding to this email or joining us for a live show soon. Have a great start to your week!
1. The U.S. is sharing intelligence with Ukraine again. What happened?
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the U.S. has resumed intelligence-sharing after a “pause” that deprived Ukraine of information it uses to defend innocent civilians from the barbaric Russian missile attacks targeting them. The Trump administration claimed intelligence-sharing had continued. But Zelensky’s a man who could’ve escaped Ukraine when Russia first attacked, yet said his fate would be the same as that of his people. Trump’s a bone-spur-brained coward, convicted on roughly the same number of felony counts as Meyer Lansky, Al Capone and John Gotti combined. So I think I’m gonna take Zelensky’s word for it on this one.
Volodymyr Zelensky
Donald Trump
Why I Care: When Trump decides not to share intel about attacks with Ukraine, as Russia and Ukraine expert Olga Lautman said on our weekly show World War Next last week, “Ukrainian civilians lose their 15-minute-advance warning. And they die.” This is not just a diplomatic back-and-forth. It’s murder. There is no other appropriate word for purposely allowing civilians to die you could save with a phone call.
So I want to know what actually happened here, who “paused” the sharing of vital, life-saving information, and whether Kyiv can count on the U.S. going forward. My guess is Zelenskyy can count on Trump’s word about as much as any creditor, wife, business partner, or diet could rely on Trump’s continued loyalty.
2. Republicans are moving their money out of NC. What does this tell you?
The leading Republican Senate super PAC has pulled its TV advertising in North Carolina to shift resources toward states such as Iowa and Kansas. Democrat Roy Cooper is making affordability and his Medicaid expansion as governor key campaign planks. But let’s put that aside for a sec, and be real, folks. As I so often say from my time in this business: I’ll always put my faith in good candidates. Roy Cooper’s run five statewide races (three for attorney general, two for governor) in North Carolina. At least three were when it was more red than its current purplish tint. He won ‘em all.
Cooper is a great candidate. And Trump, who may not technically be on the ballot, is a narcissistic jackwad who’s refused to exit the spotlight. This choice, to largely make the midterms a referendum on him, is a gift. Trump’s approval rating has recently fallen just below rat feces. It now around where you’d expect to find approval for vomiting on yourself at a business meeting with your bosses, then bending over to clean it up and pooping yourself.
Why I Care: That old Watergate adage—follow the money, my friends. Campaigns can tell us whatever story they want about their confidence level, but where parties and PACs spend money is tells you the truth. So buh bye whomever’s running against Cooper. I haven’t even bothered to learn your name because I knew you’d lose. But be strong! I’m sure there are other grifts in your future! Maybe try selling a biblical cure for cancer via email list. Mike Huckabee did that and it only seems to have enhanced his career in GOP politics.
3. Trump is hemorrhaging Mormon Voters—Why it’s a BFD
Mormons were once as reliable a Republican constituency as existed. They strongly supported George W. Bush. Loved Mitt Romney—one of their own—when he was the GOP’s presidential nominee in 2012. Oh how times change. Numbers from the Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics show that Latter-day Saints’ self-identification as Republican has dropped from roughly 70–75% in 2012 to the mid-to-high 50s. That’s what we call free fall, friends. A twenty to 30 percent crash out.
Pew Research and YouGov jointly found a steady multi-year decline in loyalty of Mormons to the GOP, with increasing numbers of Mormons becoming independents or even or shifting toward the Democratic party. Somewhere, the late former Democratic Senate Majority Leader—and Mormon—Harry Reid is smiling.
Why I Care: Will this make Utah a Democratic state? No. But Trump’s fallen to a 43% approval rating among Utah’s Mormon population, putting once safe GOP congressional seats in play. Additionally, an independent is running against a GOP incumbent in Idaho, which is 25% Mormon, and that race is competitive.
This is part of the reason why.
Mormons are 6% of Nevada and Arizona’s population, respectively. They could be the difference in Democrats' winning these crucial swing states. They’re also about 5% of Montana and Alaska, which have crucial Senate and House races this year (Democrat Mary Peltola is leading Alaska’s U.S. Senate race, while the rating for Democrat Sam Forstag in Montana’s statewide House seat was just changed from “lean Republican” to “toss up”). Alaska’s been trending Democratic. Mormons are a part of this equation.
4. Iowa Democrats aren’t trying to win every rural voter. They’re trying to lose by less.
Iowa Democrats are making a real push to compete in rural parts of the state, with candidatesl including U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek and Iowa governor candidate, Rob Sand, focusing on local campaigning and economic issues. It is a smart move.
Why I Care: Politics isn’t always about persuading voters to switch sides. Sometimes it’s convincing enough folks to stay home less often or give a Democratic candidate a second look. Democrats don’t need to—and won’t—turn every rural county blue to improve their chances statewide. They just need to compete. Go into these areas. Talk to folks about what’s important to them.
We’ve seen Trump increase his vote share among groups where it was once thought to be impossible: Latinos; young, college-educated white men, etc. The dumbest thing Dems have done in 2 decades was shuttering former DNC Chair Howard Dean’s 50 state strategy. It had Democrats talking to voters year-round—in difficult regions of oft difficult states. The only way to defang the Fox, Sinclair, and talk radio lies is to show up—and show rural voters you’re a 3-dimensional human. Get to know them.
So good work, Iowa! This is how you win not just this year, but in many future cycles.
5. Trump’s golf-course plans have a problem: a judge.
Trump has announced that East Potomac Golf Course will close on November 15 for 15 months of redevelopment. A judge has already halted redevelopment until at least October 26. The announcement doesn’t establish that the administration has resumed work in violation of the court’s order, but the legal dispute over the public course goes on, because can Donald Trump ever just walk away from a needless fight and not be an asshole? Rhetorical, folks.
Why I Care: This is about more than golf. It’s about public land, who gets to make decisions about it, and stopping Trump and other Republicans from selling off beautiful public spaces to the highest, scammy, crypto-bidder. It’s important that when this dingbat’s plans run into courts, some courts still stand tall.
Also, not for nothing, but he sucks at golf and cheats. Sportswriter Rick Reilly penned a whole book on it!
A Few More Headlines For You This Afternoon!
California and the Trump Admin fight over mail ballots:
The Justice Department is challenging California’s handling of roughly 20,000 ballots it alleges may be tied to noncitizens. California officials dispute the administration’s claims, because as you know, the Trump Administration lies like it’s a bodily reflex. This is part of Trump’s cheat at elections like he cheats at golf plan. Really, he cheats at everything, because he may be the first human being to actually suck at everything.
Trump’s approval numbers give Dems a lot to talk about:
A Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll reportedly puts his approval rating at 33%, which should make him feel good as other recent polls have had him at 29% and 32%. This is all within the margin of error. The key is two-thirds of us realize how shitty a president he is (should be 100% of humans and a more-than-minor percent of all mammals, but still, this is historically low…).
The economy: still the political problem killing MAGA:
Voters care about prices, household budgets, and whether they feel better off than a year ago. That leaves Republicans with a difficult question heading into the midterms: how do you lie your ass off about an economic record that consists of taking a growing, thriving economy and tariff-ing, debt-ing, deporting, firing, corrupting, Strait of Hormuz-ing, and inflation-ing it to death?
Good luck on that one, chuds!
Worth Another Look
Some stories we did this week that are definitely worth making sure you’ve seen/read!
Trippi: Republicans Need to Win Back 26 of 31 Points. Here’s the Problem: Longtime political pro, Joe Trippi, joined us to talk about some of the incredible numbers, races, fundraising, and more that he’s seeing. Some of it is pretty shocking. Shocking in a good way:
Trump: “I Could Say the Stupidest Things”: Actor, comedian, streamer, Hal Sparks had me on to discuss Trump’s insanity. The amber-tinted abomination told his fans he “could say the stupidest things” and they’d clap. And then…they clapped! Hal & I delved into not just what is infecting Trump’s perforated dome, but the minds of those still sticking with this mentally-congealed wastoid.
This Week’s Entertainment!
We’re doing our usual assortment of shows this week, though I apologize some changing schedules have had us on the fly lately. As of this moment, we’re looking at:
The Epstein Update w/ Kait Justice & Cliff Schecter. With our friend Kait well, she’s going through a health issue—she’ll be ok!—but won’t be able to do the show this week (or we’ll have to plan it at the last moment for end of week).Guest appearance: I’ll be on Bob Cesca’s podcast on Wednesday for an hour. We tape at 12pm ET. He usually posts it around 3-4pm et.
Amped Up w/ Cliff Schecter (& David Shuster), Weds 2pm ET. Our flagship show each week where I get to sit next to Emmy-winning former MSNBC anchor, David Shuster. We have a great guest booked, but must confirm before I announce.
World War Next: Olga Lautman, Jacob Kaarsbro, Cliff Schecter, Thurs, 1pm ET. A former spy, a Russia/Ukraine expert, and a former State Dept democracy-promoter expose Putin treachery, NATO’s reply, Trump betrayal of the latter for the former.
Tequila Talk w/ Joe Walsh & Cliff Schecter, Thurs, 5pm ET. Former GOP Rep. Joe Walsh, R-Never-Trumper, joins me—independent-minded Dem—for Happy Hour convos as we sip tequila to keep it lighter. Ya can’t have more fun streaming.
The Blue Letter, Wed am: My private memo just for Paid Subscribers with what I’ve heard from DC contacts and around the country. Where races are. Who’s in trouble. How Trump’s screwing Republicans. I escort you behind the velvet rope.
Cliff to start doing weekly Live w/ Paid Subscribers. I apologize for delays getting this paid perk started. It’s been nuts. But results are in for time of day. Now we’ll get which day settled with a poll in this week’s Paid Subscriber letter (so subscribe if you want input!)..and then, we shall begin!
Let’s Break For An Adorable Cat Moment
Torchy knows how to chill…
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That’s pretty much it for this week, folks. So always remember…
We must amplify the truth louder than their lies. — Cliff
Here's another betrayal from Trump...he's withholding the funding for a cancer treatment trial for children with brain cancer. It's new and people feel optimistic that it represents an improvement over the previous treatment. Can you think of a worse monster than one who condemns sick children to death? Long past time for Congress to step up!