THE HOME OFFICE IN WAHOO, NEBRASKA (The Daily Whatever Press)—With nine days left before the midterms, the good news has piled up so high that seven slots couldn’t hold it anymore, so we’re doing nine.
David Letterman’s Top Ten lists used to arrive “from the home office in Wahoo, Nebraska,” and I’m borrowing the office because Nebraska is suddenly one of the places Republicans are sweating. Letterman got 10. We get nine, one for every day left on the calendar, and every one of them was built, gold-plated brick by gold-plated brick, by Donald Trump.
I’m a bona fide GenXer, which means optimism is not my factory setting. I don’t trust good news until it’s been counted, certified, and left on my porch in a box.
But even I have to admit the numbers this week are fucking gorgeous.
No. 9: Trump’s approval rating has reached spelunking depth
Reuters/Ipsos has him at 31%, his lowest ever. CNN has him at 32%, also his lowest ever. NYT/Siena, with 3,494 likely voters, has him at 36%. Gallup had him at 44% at this point in 2018, the year Democrats picked up 41 House seats, so he’s running eight to 13 points behind the version of himself that already lost the House once. Yowza.
On cost of living, AP-NORC puts his approval at 17%. This is the man who promised voters he’d end inflation starting on day one, and he now polls like the last donut in the break room at 4 p.m. if that donut’s glaze was flaking off and losing its damn mind at rallies, fantasizing about all the other hot, sexy man donuts.
No. 8: The generic ballot is showing off
NYT/Siena has Democrats ahead 52% to 41% on the generic congressional ballot. CNN has it 49% to 39%. The Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll has Democrats up 12 among likely voters, with Republicans stuck at 41% among registered voters, the lowest the GOP has ever scored in that poll.
In 2018, Democrats won the national House vote by about eight and a half points, and Nancy Pelosi got her gavel back. We are polling ahead of that, and I would like everyone to stay calm about it while I scream into a throw pillow.
Trump’s ratings on immigration, border security, and deportations also hit new lows in the Verasight poll, and Republicans no longer lead Democrats on immigration or deportations at all. He spent 10 years building his entire political brand on one issue, and he’s lost it. Oh, honey. I’d feel bad, except that schadenfreude is just so much more fun.
No. 7: Democrats are the ones who can’t sit still
Pew Research Center found that 63% of Democratic supporters say they’re extremely motivated to vote, against 46% of Republican supporters. Half of Democrats have given the election “a lot” of thought; only 36% of Republicans can say the same.
In October 2022, Republicans led on both measures. Four years ago, the enthusiasm gap was theirs. Now it’s wearing our jersey and asking where to park.
No. 6: Cook’s House map is bleeding blue
