Putin Is Losing—and He Knows It
Drones over Siberia, a crashing ruble, and the 800 bodyguards who can't stop what's coming.
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—Cliff
by David Shuster
For more than twenty years, Vladimir Putin and his Kremlin have cultivated the image of Russia as an unstoppable superpower, a nation of inexhaustible military prowess, inexorable political will, and limitless strategic cunning. Western commentators often repeated the myth, showering Putin with adjectives like “formidable,” “fearsome,” and “unbeatable.”
Then came Ukraine.
Putin initially promoted the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a brief excursion. He called it “a special military operation” and “brisk campaign” to remind an unruly neighbor of its proper place in history.
At the beginning, even the U.S. State Department thought Zelensky’s Ukrainian forces would crumble, the government in Kyiv would evaporate, and Europe would rediscover its habit of accommodating Russian demands.
Instead, the invaders encountered an unpleasant reality. Nations, like individuals, occasionally refuse to cooperate with the stories written about them.
The war has now become an exhibition not of Russian omnipotence but of Ukrainian ingenuity. Possessing fewer aircraft, fewer ships, fewer tanks, and fewer men, Ukraine has repeatedly accomplished what military orthodoxy insisted could not be done.
Ukraine has transformed inexpensive drones into strategic weapons, converted technological imagination into battlefield leverage, and compelled a vastly larger adversary to defend territory once presumed safely beyond the reach of war.
This week, Ukraine carried out its longest strike of the war, sending drones some 3,000 kilometers from Ukraine to Russia’s largest oil refinery in Omsk and setting it on fire. Omsk is in southern Siberia. It was the first time the war had ever reached the facility, and satellite imagery confirmed direct hits on its most critical refining units.
This successful strike, like other Ukrainian attacks on military facilities, logistics hubs, or energy infrastructure inside Russia carries significance far beyond the immediate damage. It underscores that distance no longer guarantees security. It reminds every Russian citizen that geography no longer provides immunity from the consequences of Putin’s warmongering.
Below the line: the casualty math the Kremlin won’t print, the confessions slipping out of its own propagandists, and the reason Putin just expanded his personal guard to 800 men. Subscribe to access!
