Toplines for the Week
Cliff’s Note:
The House looks good. Really good. But the Senate is where Trump’s agenda lives or dies, and right now it’s sitting on a handful of races inside a single polling miss.
This week’s Midterm HQ walks through exactly which ones, what Democrats have to win, and what to watch in the early vote. Paid subscribers get the full dashboard and the Senate math.
We’re down to 10 days. We can do this. Become a paid subscriber now and help us stay loud—keep us fighting ‘til the last votes in.
—Cliff
So let’s get this straight. Democrats are crushing, but we still might not get what we’re praying for out of these midterms?
Arrrgh, yes. On the one hand, this week:
Structural indicators hit new lows for Trump, and new highs for Democrats.
Democrats have a huge money advantage in the race for state legislative chambers, possibly as much as four times more than Republicans.
The gubernatorial races continue to look good in most key races.
And The Cook Political Report now counts 220 US House seats as at least “Lean” Democratic, with 17 more toss-ups. So as of today, the “chalk” result not only gives Democrats a majority but puts them on the doorstep of a big enough margin to withstand some factional infighting.
So why the hedging hesitation in the headline?
Because on the other hand, the Senate situation is resting on a knife’s edge, as I’ll get into below.
