Cliff’s Note:
Republicans had a slightly less terrible week, and you can bet they’ll spin it as a turnaround. Matt Robison has the numbers that say otherwise: Trump at 37.7 percent approval in the Silver Bulletin average, a generic ballot heading toward D+8, and consumer sentiment at its second-lowest reading on record.
Matt lays out the three reasons he expects this to be a sucker’s rally, where the Republican ad money is actually going, and why the Susan Collins race in Maine is the one to watch right now.
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—Cliff
Toplines for the Week
When bear markets rally, financial experts like to say that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls far enough and fast enough.” Well, things got so bad for Republicans last week that when they got a few tenths of a percent better on some key indicators in recent days, it counted as good news, even if it’s probably just a levitating deceased feline.
Is that enough to say they “won” the week? Well, from the standpoint of intellectual consistency, it is fair to say so, since the numbers were better for Republicans than they were a week ago, even if it’s by the merest statistical whisper (even though the major generic ballot averages are converging toward an 8+ point Democratic lead, which is a big deal).
The take-home is that the last seven days were like the Lord of the Rings moment where Gandalf says the air is a little bit less foul over here: Republicans are still trapped in a deep, dark hole, but it felt a tad less dank. Will that last? See below…
