Cliff’s Note:
Every week, Midterm HQ has given you the numbers straight, without the hopium. This final pre-election edition says what nobody wants to hear but everybody needs to: this might not be over on Tuesday night.
Paid subscribers get the full dashboard, the House math, exactly where the Senate firewall breaks, and the playbook to hold the win if Trump’s team tries to stop certification.
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—Cliff
Toplines for the Week
The midterm story that’s been building all year remains clear: this should be an overwhelming victory for Democrats, and therefore for all Americans who oppose Trump. As I showed in last week’s Midterm HQ, we’re poised for strong outcomes among state legislatures, governors, and the U.S. House, while the Senate is looking as good as could be hoped but still rests on a knife’s edge. The newest numbers confirm it, though they’ve also added some important factors that I’ll describe below.
But if you take away nothing else from this final pre-election Midterm HQ or anything you read this weekend, I hope you’ll hold on to this: we need to be prepared for this fight to go well past November 3.
It gives me no pleasure to write that. In fact, I hope I’m wrong.
However, as the philosopher G.I. Joe taught us, “knowing is half the battle.” I’d rather that we be honest and come prepared for a slog than stumble through a haze of hopium into a Trump trap on November 4. So, let’s understand that victory will probably be delayed.
But it will not be denied—not if we’re ready to fight for it.
