Operation Epic Surrender

Trump launched a war on his gut, lost the Strait of Hormuz, and is about to hand Iran $300 billion. Senate Republicans named it for him.

by David Shuster

One of Donald Trump’s defining characteristics is that he repeatedly enters situations he does not understand, dismisses expert advice, and leaves behind a larger mess than the one he wants to fix. Or, as social media describes it, everything Trump touches turns to shit.

It is now clear there is a pattern and consistency with Trump’s Presidential defecations, whether it’s a public works project like the now green Lincoln memorial reflecting pool or the economic implosion thanks the disastrous military confrontation with Iran.

The comparison may seem odd at first. What could a reflecting pool and a Middle Eastern war possibly have in common? The answer is narcissism fueled decision-making.

Fixing or improving a public works project requires careful planning, engineering expertise, environmental analysis, and an understanding of basic science. Just because Trump wants the water to look like it’s in a gigantic blue swimming pool doesn’t mean the water will simply obey.

The same principles apply to foreign policy.

Iran is not a casino in Atlantic City that can be rebranded with a new sign. It is not a Manhattan building where a flashy lobby can distract from structural flaws. It is a nation of nearly ninety million people sitting at the center of one of the world’s most volatile regions. Every military action sets off consequences, including economic fallout, that can spread far beyond the first explosion.

But consequences have never been Trump’s strong suit.

Again and again, Trump has approached complex problems as though they are simple matters of willpower. Reflecting pool experts warned of complications in simply painting the bottom blue. They asked, “what about fixing the leaky connection pipes that fuel algae growth?” “No,” Trump insisted. “Just get me the blue by July 4 and spend whatever it takes.”

$13 million dollars later, following a no-bid contract to a Trump friend, the Lincoln memorial reflecting pool has splotchy green patches and is more awful looking than ever.

In considering Iran, U.S. diplomats and military planners warned Trump of potential problems in the Persian Gulf. They said Iran might respond to war by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Trump turned away the caution with a simple, “no, I don’t think so.” And now, with ships still bottled up in the Strait, world oil supplies are weeks away from being exhausted and gas prices in the U.S. are headed towards $5/gallon.

Trump’s Operation Epic Surrender, as Senate Republicans are calling his effort to end the war, includes immediately unfreezing hundreds of millions of dollars of Iranian assets. Trump has also promised the Iranian regime that the U.S. will secure $300B in reconstruction investments. And there is still no agreement on Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

In other words, Iran – the world’s largest sponsor of terrorism, and a regime that killed 40,000 of it’s own citizens earlier this year, will now emerge stronger and wealthier than before Trump trusted his “gut’ and launched the war.

Trump’s contempt for expertise is a defining feature of his public life. To Trump, specialists are people who stand between him and the answer he had already decided upon five minutes earlier.

There is something distinctly and unfortunately American about Trump. Our nation has always had a weakness for the loud man at the end of the bar who claims every professional is a fool and that every sports coach on the widescreen TV is a “loser.”

Trump transformed that crass, bombastic lout into a governing philosophy.

The trouble is that reality keeps score.

In Washington, D.C., Trump found himself defeated by something as unglamorous as algae growth.

The commander of endless self-confidence, the scourge of experts and environmental science, was outmaneuvered by pond scum. In the Persian gulf, Trump discovered that Iran is not an apprentice on a reality television show waiting to hear, “You’re fired.” Iran is a determined adversary with its own objectives, capabilities, and capacity to respond. The common thread is difficult to miss. Trump has spent years advertising himself as history’s great problem-solver. Yet time and again he collides with reality and discovers that neither algae nor geopolitics is impressed by his swagger.

Engineers can be ignored, but taking shortcuts and ignoring leaky water pipes still leads to problems.

Generals can be overruled, but enemy governments stubbornly insist on making decisions of their own.

This becomes especially dangerous when the subject turns from construction mishaps to war.

The first question in any military action is not whether bombs can be dropped. The United States has never lacked for bombs. The real question is what happens next.

What happens when retaliation begins?

What happens when allies are drawn in, markets panic, shipping lanes close, or regional conflicts spread?

These are not details. They are the entire story.

History is littered with leaders who believed a show of force would be swift and decisive. History is also littered with monuments to their miscalculations.

Trump’s defenders often portray his impulsiveness as strength. But there is a huge difference between decisiveness and recklessness. A surgeon who ignores scans and cuts immediately is certainly decisive. So is a pilot who refuses to read instruments.

Successful leaders understand the limits of their own knowledge. A wise and effective President seeks advice, listens to specialists, asks difficult questions, worries about unintended consequences.

We have a President who falls asleep in the oval office on-camera.

Then, while awake, Trump obsesses over ballrooms and plastering everything with crass and tacky gold.

Trump treats doubt as weakness, expertise as annoyance, and caution as disloyalty.

That may work in MAGA world. It does not work particularly well in engineering, science, diplomacy, or war.

Indeed, Trump’s greatest frustration with experts seems to be that they keep introducing him to facts. Facts are inconvenient things. They refuse to flatter. They decline to applaud. They have no respect whatsoever for confidence unsupported by evidence.

And so the pattern repeats itself. Trump inserts himself into a complicated situation. He dismisses those who know the subject best. He promises a quick and dramatic solution. Then reality arrives carrying a baseball bad, or $200/barrel for oil, or putrid green algae mixed with dead fish.

The result is often the same: more confusion, more expense, more risk, and a larger mess than the one Trump originally inherited.

A reflecting pool can survive such childish treatment over and over again. Nations, soldiers, and citizens may not.

That is why the issue with Trump is larger than any single project or any single confrontation. Trump mistakes mistakes certainty for wisdom and volume for intelligence.

The lesson in all of this is painfully simple. Complex problems demand humility. They demand expertise. They demand leaders mature enough to understand that not every challenge can be bullied into submission.

Donald Trump has spent much of his public life proving the opposite. The tragedy is that Trump keeps finding bigger stages on which to demonstrate that whatever he gets involved in gets worse.

And who pays for the Trump shit storms and the growing, putrid piles?

We do.

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Cliff’s Note: David Shuster nailed something I can’t stop chewing on. A green reflecting pool and a richer, stronger Iran don’t seem related—until you see the through-line. Trump barges into things he doesn’t understand, waves off the people who do, and leaves a bigger mess than the one he swore he’d fix. They warned him about the leaky pipes feeding the algae; he wanted blue by July 4, whatever it cost. Thirteen million dollars and a no-bid contract to a buddy later, the reflecting pool is splotchy green. Generals warned him Iran could choke the Strait of Hormuz; he said, “No, I don’t think so.” Now ships are bottled up, gas is nearing five bucks a gallon, and his “Operation Epic Surrender” is about to unfreeze Iranian assets and dangle $300 billion at the regime. Pond scum and geopolitics agree on one thing: neither is impressed by his swagger. And we pay for the cleanup.

Here’s my direct ask. We’re opening a new chapter at Blue Amp—a paid layer on top of everything we already give away. The videos, the hot takes, the daily fight stay free, always. But for the people who fund this, we’re building an insiders’ room: the deeper digs, the behind-the-scenes, the work we can only do because you’ve got our back. If David’s piece made you angry in the right way, become a paid subscriber and help us keep naming names. The predator class has its donors. We’ve got you.

—Cliff

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