Cliff’s Note:
Lawrence is about to tell you Democrats are headed for 55 Senate seats and 250 in the House. I’ve been doing this a long time, and I’ll go one further: I’m every bit as bullish as he is, maybe more. Read his piece, then keep it open Tuesday night, because his hour-by-hour guide will tell you whether we’re having a good night or a great one before the cable pundits figure it out.
And if you’ve been meaning to join us, now’s the time. These are the last 3 days of our 30 to Turn It Blue campaign: annual memberships are $40 instead of $60. Lock it in, and let’s turn this country blue together.
—Cliff
The New York Times and Siena College polled South Carolina’s Senate race this fall and found Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who lost a swing House race in 2022, tied at 48% with Senator Darline Graham, who was appointed in July to keep her late brother Lindsey’s seat “in the family.”
South Carolina. The state that kept Strom Thurmond in the Senate until he was 100 years old.
I’m the guy who spent October writing about World War Three and a plague lab in Siberia. I’m Gen X and gay, and I’ve watched enough election nights go sideways to treat good news as a setup. So it costs me something to say this 2 days out: I think Tuesday is going to be a rout, and I’m putting numbers on it.
Here they are, and here’s how you’ll know by about 9 p.m. Eastern whether I’m right.
My Call
In the House, Democrats win at least 250 seats.
In the Senate, Democrats win 55.
In the states, Democrats hold 29 of the nation’s 50 governorships.
Those numbers sit above what the professionals will tell you, and I know it. The Cook Political Report’s final House projection gives Democrats 227 to 240 seats. Cook has Democrats netting 2 to 6 Senate seats, which tops out at 53. Nate Silver’s model puts Democrats’ chances of taking the House at about 95%, with an average gain of 25 seats. I’ve read all of it. I’m going past it on purpose.
In the Senate, 55 means holding Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota, then flipping North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, and South Carolina. In the governors’ races, 29 means holding Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona while flipping Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, Nevada, and Nebraska. That would give Democrats a majority of governors for the first time in 16 years, with 3 to spare.
Why I’m Not Crazy
Start with the national number. Marist’s late-October poll for NPR and PBS News has Democrats ahead on the generic ballot among likely voters, 52% to 44%. The same poll puts Donald Trump’s approval at 40%, with 59% disapproving. A president 19 points underwater doesn’t get a soft landing in a midterm. He gets 2018 again, with interest.
Then the Senate map. In the latest public polls of the 7 races Cook rates as toss-ups, the Democrat leads every one: Mary Peltola by 7 in Alaska, Josh Turek by 3 in Iowa, Adam Hamilton by 4 in Kansas, Troy Jackson by 4 in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed by 7 in Michigan, Sherrod Brown by 4 in Ohio, and James Talarico by 6 in Texas. Several of those leads sit inside the margin of error. All 7 lean the same way.
Then the movement. On Friday, 4 days before the election, Cook shifted 14 House and Senate races, and every one moved toward Democrats. Florida’s Senate race went from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Ohio’s 9th and Pennsylvania’s 8th moved to Lean Democratic. A day earlier, Cook moved the Wisconsin governor’s race to Lean Democratic and Kansas to Toss Up. Forecasters guard their reputations the way dragons guard gold. When they move this late, the data dragged them there.
The other reason I’m writing this on a Sunday instead of hiding under a blanket until Wednesday is simpler. Optimism turns people out. Doom keeps them home, and every “we’re so fucked” post this week is a gift-wrapped present for Ken Paxton. People show up for a winner, and they put in the extra hour of phone banking when they can feel the thing tipping. I’ve earned a weekend off from pessimism. So have you. Spend it knocking on doors.
Good Night, Great Night
So nobody throws the remote over a single county, here’s the scorecard.
A good night: Democrats flip the House, reach 51 Senate seats, and win at least 26 governorships. That’s the Speaker’s gavel, a Senate majority that JD Vance’s tiebreaking vote can’t touch, and the first Democratic majority of governors since 2010.
A great night: 250, 55, 29.
If we only get a good night, take it, celebrate it, and go back to work Wednesday morning. A good night still ends Trump’s free ride through Congress.
What to Watch, Hour by Hour
All times are Eastern.
6 p.m.
Most of Indiana closes, including my corner of it.
